Robert Fisk: As the 6am ceasefire takes effect... the real war begins
Robert Fisk discusses a not so optimistic outcome of the cease fire, which theoretically begins in a few hours
"The real war in Lebanon begins today. The world may believe - and Israel may believe - that the UN ceasefire due to come into effect at 6am today will mark the beginning of the end of the latest dirty war in Lebanon after up to 1,000 Lebanese civilians and more than 30 Israeli civilians have been killed. But the reality is quite different and will suffer no such self-delusion: the Israeli army, reeling under the Hizbollah's onslaught of the past 24 hours, is now facing the harshest guerrilla war in its history. And it is a war they may well lose
...The Israeli military appears to be efficient at destroying bridges, power stations, gas stations and apartment blocks - but signally inefficient in crushing the "terrorist" army they swore to liquidate..."
read the rest here
i hope he's wrong.
"The real war in Lebanon begins today. The world may believe - and Israel may believe - that the UN ceasefire due to come into effect at 6am today will mark the beginning of the end of the latest dirty war in Lebanon after up to 1,000 Lebanese civilians and more than 30 Israeli civilians have been killed. But the reality is quite different and will suffer no such self-delusion: the Israeli army, reeling under the Hizbollah's onslaught of the past 24 hours, is now facing the harshest guerrilla war in its history. And it is a war they may well lose
...The Israeli military appears to be efficient at destroying bridges, power stations, gas stations and apartment blocks - but signally inefficient in crushing the "terrorist" army they swore to liquidate..."
read the rest here
i hope he's wrong.
posted by Laila K at
21:29
11 Comments:
It depends on how you look at things.
For hizballa, they actually won this war. they survived 31 days of bombardment, they were able to fire more and more rockets and kill more and more israeli soldiers.
From a Lebanese perspective, we lost on every single level. People died or flew, country totally destroyed. I can't see any benefit from what happened.
AND IT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO EVERYONE NOW, THAT HIZBALLA IS NOT FIGHTING THIS WAR FOR LEBANON. HIZBALLA'S PLAN HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH LEBANON. They are a tool in Iran and Syria's hand. They are the perfect weapon against the US in this region.
For israel, this was a total fiasco. They did not get their soldiers back and proved to the world that even the most sophisticated weapons are unable to reach Nasralla.
...And I dont know where we go from here.
I am keeping my fingers crossed. This is gonna be so complicated. I don't know how the spreading of 15,000 lebanese soldiers and 15,000 UN peacekeepers across the south, while Israel withdraws south and HA pulls back to the north, I don't know how that could be achieved; just from a mechanical point of view. Any such plan will have holes in it.
Fisk is usually right. I am having a hard time believing that Israel would withdraw that easily.
I just hope our Lebanese army doesn't get slaughtered in the process, like it has been. That will bring the stamina down, if there is any stamina left.
Even if the cease fire does not hold I believe that the intensity of the hostilities will taper off because most Lebanese are sick and tired of the killings and destruction and because the expanded UNIFIL will be deployed.
Events will prove Mr. Fisk to be wrong again.
Israel didn't lose anything, they taught the Lebanese a good lesson about supporting Hezbollah. Lebanon will fall in line now that they tasted the back of Israel's hand.
L, fisk is right, now we go into uncharted territory
i won't say more on this post, you know my fears and why i have them.
hopefully one benefit from this war is to have a clear idea abt who the real aggressor is, who is resisting the aggressor, and who the ENTIRE lebanese population should continue to resist until REAL and JUST diplomacy is initiated.
otherwise we're gonna keep rebuilding, and i'm tired of the "re"
i'm actually fucking tired.
btalfenlik boukra.
anon, israel lost world public opinion, credibility, and the war (since it did not achieve any of its stated goals).
it's ok, denial is the first stage, you'll get over it soon.
Israel lost nothing and taught you people a lesson about controlling Hezbollah.
This was just a slap from the back of their hand. If you don't control Hezbollah, then next time Israel will punch your puny country in the mouth.
Learn your lesson or get more punishment.
It just began princess.
as fisk says.
i tend to think he is right.
the last year events prove that the lebanese do not take things seriously and stick to " i am right, no i am right".
I think there will be a sort of coordination between the lebanese army and the HA resistance.
but i am not optimistic, u will excpect talkings and talkings by 14 march politicians who r almost dead politically and getting burried, yet they tend to deny this fact.
It's now about "inside Lebanon".
I am really astonished by the people reaction after the said-to-be a cease fire. They are returning to south to see their houses in thousands. you can't but admire such people.
we could have avoided the sectorial tension if the resistance was national instead of one-party-resistance.
yet, what' done is done..
w ma teddeh 3a hal khara elleh faw2eh.
el3ama bi3yoonon. in wein bijeebo hal tefkeer el ma3koof. ma 3am yi2daro ysadd2o innon akalo khara.
ps. refer to khaled saghiyyeh's article in my blog.
The Devil is in the Details.Hope he's wrong.
ma eli khili' to think about what could happen..
when i heard nasrallah speak i wasn't very optimistic..
but i just heard that all the troops left so i'm celebrating that right now..
we'll see..
I am anonymous @3:54 AM, @4:16 AM.
I was wrong. We, the israelis, destroyed your country, but at the same time proved to the world that we are not different than the nazis.
I am very sorry to what my country did to your country. I hope that you will sue Israel and rebuild Lebanon very soon.
Shalom
laikeh, elilo fi shi 2esmo haldol la haida el m3attar fow2 :)
good luck 3ala el pres. ya zgheereh.
w me and p were talking abt a trip to boston (calm down ok calm down), so do u know of a good hotel we can stay in?
HAHAHAHA shou sa2eeleh ana
be7kikeh boukra
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